Stocks, FX Reasons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and future market forecasts


Have you ever wondered why Russia can invade Ukraine openly? After World War II, the number of countries that used force to invade other countries has decreased, with the exception of Russia today. It has different backgrounds. As of February 14, 2022, USD / JPY, EUR / JPY, GBP / JPY, AUD / JPY are flooded with yen buying to avoid risk. US dollars have been bought all the time at EUR / USD / GBP / USD. This situation will continue as long as this tense situation in Ukraine continues. In this article, I will explain why Russia can invade.


America is full of Chinese sanctions

In a global emergency, the United States often intervenes in the military. It also intervenes in Asia, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Oceania, Africa and Europe everywhere. It can be said that this is because the United States has military bases all over the world, but now that it is dealing with the enemy of the world called China, the United States cannot afford it. As I wrote in the article below, China is now more threatening than Russia. If the United States intervenes in the invasion of Ukraine, it will be forced into a two-sided operation in China and Eastern Europe. As a result, the United States has not sent many troops to Eastern Europe.

Russia is a resource-rich country

There is also an opinion that if Russia invades Ukraine, Russia will be subject to economic sanctions from the world and will be ruined. However, on the other hand, many countries rely on Russia’s abundant natural resources. In other words, sanctioning Russia can result in strangling one’s own country. Russia is a resource-rich country that boasts the world’s second largest production of natural gas and the third largest production of crude oil. Therefore, there is a big barrier to excluding Russia from resource sources.

Russia-China alliance

Currently Russia and China have a deep connection. Russia is the lifeline because China has few true allies. Russia is isolated among European countries and is close to China. Therefore, Russia also has the backing of China, so it is safe to attack the west. But on the other hand, Russia is also a country that often betrays, as history proves. China may be hurt in the near future.

Future market forecast

For these reasons, Russia has a high probability of invading Ukraine. As I wrote in the article below, as of February 14, 2022, yen buying and dollar buying are continuing.

Technical analysis is meaningless

In such an emergency, technical analysis is not effective for the market. I recommend that you do not trade or follow trends during plagues, wars and financial crises.

If the invasion of Ukraine does not occur

If the invasion of Ukraine does not occur, there will be a movement to gradually return the collapsed amount so far. It is unlikely that all of them will suddenly return in one day. It seems that there will be a gradual return.

In the event of an invasion of Ukraine

If the invasion of Ukraine occurs, a crash will occur. And if China piggybacks on Taiwan or Japan, it should fall even further. It will be a de facto world war and may fall to the bottom of the earth. If this happens, you may want to worry about your own life. Eastern Europe and East Asia will be the battlefields and the world will be in great turmoil.