No one can predict what will happen in the forex world in the short term. However, it seems possible to estimate what the national power and currency value of each country will be in one or two years, so this time I tried to predict the near future of major countries. Let’s make a prediction, including whether the national currency will have power in the future, whether it will decline or rise. Now that there is a nuclear weapon, it is difficult to realize an armed war, but factors such as financial sanctions, resources, AI, and cyber terrorism are becoming stronger. A war with the economy as a weapon has begun in the world. One thing I can say for sure now is that the trend of China, which is a problem child in the world, will move the market.
|Soaring factors||The population of the United States is expected to increase significantly by 2050 to 380 million. GDP growth is expected to continue to rise moderately. The FOMC has suggested three rate hikes in 2022, so the dollar is likely to skyrocket at this point.|
|Falling factor||Inflation is accelerating in the United States today, which could make life difficult for low- and middle-income earners.|
There could be a temporary collapse of the dollar due to Chinese sanctions that will continue from 2020.
Currently, the United States is in an ongoing economic sanctions battle with China, and the market is temporarily turbulent. The possibility of an actual war is undeniable, and the extreme collapse of the dollar could continue temporarily this year. In Japan, the Beijing Olympics boycott theory is currently becoming stronger, and it is expected that sanctions against China will continue to be stricter.
|Soaring factors||When a new strain of coronavirus comes out, the Japanese yen will be bought temporarily. Also, in the event of economic sanctions or wars between the United States and China, the Japanese yen will surely be bought.|
|Falling factor||The 2021 House of Representatives election ended with an overwhelming victory for the left-wing Liberal Democratic Party. There was a movement of Chinese sanctions in the EU and the United States last year, but if Japan does not cooperate, Japan may be sanctioned in the future. The economic downturn will accelerate as the party, which has been the cause of the economic downturn for many years, wins again. Also, in the long run, population decline and aging will be very burdensome.|
In Japan, the declining population and aging population are afflicting the country. Despite many years of political corruption, the value of the Japanese yen will continue to decline. As a factor to rise, if there is a case such as the spread of coronavirus infection or a war, the Japanese yen will surely be bought, but it will be only a temporary factor.
|Soaring factors||The UK has a close relationship with the EU, so we expect the pound to rise as the value of the euro rises. With Brexit completed successfully, we don’t expect major political changes to get angry, and we expect the pound to rise in value.|
|Falling factor||Since the end of 2021, I have been suffering from the spread of coronavirus infection. Therefore, if a lockdown occurs, a large drop is expected temporarily. There is also the Scottish independence movement problem in Britain, and if this problem develops, the pound has the potential to fall sharply.|
The pound sterling has lost its value significantly due to Brexit (Britain’s departure from the EU), but has remained in the 150 yen range since then. It is predicted that no major political changes will occur for a while, so it looks like it will rise in the big picture. However, the only exception is China’s emergency. If China wages a war in Asia, as Queen Elizabeth is calling at Japan, the market will move significantly.
|Soaring factors||Eurozone GDP forecasts are strong with 2022 plus and 2023 plus. As the economy is recovering, we expect it to gradually rise.|
|Falling factor||Since the end of 2021, I have been suffering from the spread of coronavirus infection. Therefore, if a lockdown occurs, a large drop is expected temporarily. The negative factor is that Russia is strengthening its military on the Ukrainian border and tensions with NATO are increasing. There can be a sudden catastrophe.|
The biggest problems with the euro are probably the coronavirus problem and the Russian problem. Russia is currently flickering military action, so the euro could undoubtedly undergo cataclysms once the invasion actually begins. Also, as you can see from the fact that the French Navy’s tactical fleet is calling at Japan, a Chinese emergency can be a negative factor.
|Soaring factors||Because Australia is a resource-rich country, the prices of coal and iron ore have an impact. In the long run, resource prices are rising, which is likely to result in a gradual updraft.|
|Falling factor||Australia is greatly influenced by China’s politics and economy. China, which has become a problem child in the world, is definitely destined to plunge if something is done. In addition, it is suffering from the spread of coronavirus infection, which may cause a temporary big decline.|
Although Australia’s decoupling with China began last year, China is still the largest export destination for resources and is destined to be more susceptible to China. The price of resources is rising, so I think it will rise in the long run, but if something goes wrong in China, it is likely to cause an extreme plunge.
|Soaring factors||The economic situation of the neighboring United States is strongly reflected, but the United States is expected to have positive economic growth after 2022, and the Canadian dollar is expected to follow. Crude oil prices are also rising, which is also a tailwind for the Canadian dollar.|
|Falling factor||Canada’s economy depends on the United States. Due to the effects of the economic war between the United States and China, we expect that the development will depend on the United States, for better or for worse.|
The Canadian dollar is expected to rise moderately now that oil prices are on the rise. However, for better or for worse, it is influenced by the United States, so there can be a big crash in the case of Chinese sanctions.
Short-term movement depends on trends in China
The short-term move is undoubtedly up to China, as the United States sanctioned China in December 2021. China is currently stirring the world in a bad way, but if there is a war or economic sanctions, 100% Japanese yen will be bought. It can be said that the yen is destined to weaken in 10 to 20 years, but it is certain that there will be sudden yen buying this year as well. If a new type of coronavirus such as Omicron strain is discovered or if there is a lockdown, it will be a yen purchase.